2025 Defense Risk Report: The Evolving Threat of China and Russia
Looking ahead to 2025, the military capabilities of China and Russia present unprecedented challenges to global security. Recent intelligence assessments reveal significant advances in both nations’ military technologies, nuclear arsenals, and cyber warfare capabilities. These developments signal a fundamental shift in the international security landscape, requiring immediate attention from defense strategists and policymakers.
In this defense risk analysis we identify several critical areas of concern, including China’s rapid military modernization and Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine. Their strengthened partnership, demonstrated through joint military exercises and technology sharing, compounds these challenges. This report examines these threats alongside potential countermeasures, focusing on U.S. military modernization efforts and strategic partnerships with allies across key regions.
China’s Military Modernization and Expansion
The People’s Republic of China’s military modernization has reached unprecedented levels, transforming its armed forces into a formidable global power. Under President Xi Jinping’s directive to build a “world-class military,” China has embarked on the most ambitious military expansion program in its history.
Rapid Nuclear Arsenal Growth
China’s nuclear modernization has accelerated at an alarming pace, with its arsenal growing from approximately 200 warheads in 2020 to 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023. Defense intelligence projections indicate this number will surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030, making China the fastest-expanding nuclear power globally.
Technological Advancements
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has achieved significant technological breakthroughs across multiple domains:
- Advanced naval capabilities with the world’s largest fleet of 370+ battle force platforms
- Development of new intercontinental ballistic missiles with conventional strike capabilities targeting the continental United States
- Deployment of the J-20 stealth fighter and H-6N nuclear-capable bomber
Naval modernization stands as a cornerstone of China’s military transformation. The following table illustrates the projected naval force comparison:
| Year | Chinese Naval Fleet | U.S. Naval Fleet |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 370+ ships | 296 ships |
| 2025 | 395 ships | Declining |
| 2030 | 435 ships | 294 ships |
Increased Aggression in the Indo-Pacific
China’s military assertiveness has manifested through numerous provocative actions in the region. Between 2021 and 2023, the PLA conducted over 180 coercive air intercepts against U.S. aircraft, with the number rising to more than 300 instances when including allies and partners. This aggressive posture extends to maritime domains, where China deploys its navy, coast guard, and the world’s largest commercial fishing fleet to intimidate neighboring nations.
The PLA’s refusal to engage in military-to-military communications with the United States, combined with increasingly aggressive operational behavior, has significantly elevated the risk of miscalculation and potential conflict. Recent estimates suggest China’s actual defense spending reaches approximately $700 billion annually, nearly matching U.S. defense expenditures and outspending major U.S. allies in the region by a factor of five-to-one.
Russia’s Resurgent Military Threat
Russia’s military resurgence has emerged as a critical concern for global security, marked by substantial increases in defense spending and strategic modernization efforts. The country’s 2025 defense budget has reached a post-Soviet high of 6.3% of GDP, with military expenditure increasing by 25% to USD 145.00 billion.
Ukraine Conflict Implications
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has significantly shaped Russia’s military evolution. Despite initial setbacks, Russia has demonstrated resilience by adapting its military strategy and industrial base. The country’s defense spending now accounts for nearly one-third of its federal budget, reflecting a determined shift toward a wartime economy. This transformation has enabled Russia to increase production of critical military hardware by more than twofold.
Key military adaptations include:
- Enhanced air defense integration
- Improved electronic warfare capabilities
- Strengthened logistics and supply chain management
- Accelerated domestic weapons production
Nuclear Doctrine Changes
Russia’s nuclear posture has undergone significant modifications, reflecting a more assertive stance in global affairs. The country has expanded its nuclear mission with several notable changes to its doctrine:
- Explicit inclusion of Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella
- Broadened definition of circumstances warranting nuclear response
- New provisions regarding attacks from non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers
- Expanded scope of potential triggers, including aerospace attacks
These changes represent a significant departure from the 2020 doctrine, lowering the threshold for potential nuclear use while increasing strategic ambiguity about when such weapons might be employed.
Cyber Warfare Capabilities
Russia maintains sophisticated cyber capabilities that pose persistent threats to critical infrastructure and government systems worldwide. The country’s cyber operations have demonstrated increasing sophistication, with state-sponsored teams conducting more than 180 coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region alone.
| Cyber Threat Category | Capability Level |
|---|---|
| Infrastructure Targeting | Advanced |
| Intelligence Collection | Sophisticated |
| Disinformation Operations | Highly Active |
| Military Systems Disruption | Significant |
Recent assessments indicate that Russia’s cyber warfare units have expanded their focus beyond traditional military targets to include:
- Critical infrastructure systems
- Financial networks
- Government communications
- Electoral systems
The integration of these capabilities with conventional military operations represents a significant evolution in Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy. Their cyber operations now demonstrate improved coordination with traditional military activities, enhancing overall operational effectiveness.
Collaborative Efforts Between China and Russia
The strategic partnership between China and Russia has evolved into an unprecedented level of military and diplomatic cooperation, marking a significant shift in global power dynamics. Their collaborative efforts have intensified particularly since 2017, with both nations conducting more than 100 joint military exercises.
Joint Military Exercises
The scope and complexity of joint military exercises between China and Russia have expanded dramatically, extending from the Mediterranean to the Arctic Circle. These exercises demonstrate increasing operational sophistication and strategic coordination. In 2024, China played a pivotal role in “Ocean-2024,” Russia’s largest naval exercise in three decades, involving more than 400 warships, 120 aircraft, and 90,000 personnel.
Recent joint operations have included:
- Strategic bomber patrols near Alaska
- Anti-submarine warfare drills in the Pacific
- Combined naval maneuvers in the East China Sea
Technology Sharing
The technological cooperation between Moscow and Beijing has reached new heights, particularly in defense-related sectors. Russia has emerged as China’s primary arms supplier, with bilateral defense cooperation focusing on critical military technologies. The partnership has yielded significant developments in:
| Technology Area | Collaboration Status |
|---|---|
| Missile Systems | Active Development |
| Submarine Technology | Joint Projects |
| Air Defense Systems | Ongoing Transfer |
| Early Warning Systems | Implementation Phase |
China’s support for Russia’s defense industry has become increasingly crucial, with Beijing providing substantial assistance in critical components and dual-use technologies. This technological exchange has strengthened both nations’ military capabilities while reducing their dependence on Western technology.
Diplomatic Alignment Against the West
The diplomatic coordination between China and Russia has solidified into a formidable alliance against Western interests. Their bilateral trade volume reached a historic high of USD 240 billion, demonstrating the economic foundation of their partnership. This economic cooperation has provided Russia with crucial support amid Western sanctions while offering China a reliable strategic partner.
Their diplomatic alignment manifests in several key areas:
- Joint opposition to Western military alliances
- Coordinated positions in international forums
- Mutual support on territorial claims
- Combined efforts to promote alternative global governance structures
The relationship has evolved beyond mere cooperation into a comprehensive strategic partnership. During their May 2024 summit, Presidents Xi and Putin emphasized their commitment to strengthening cooperation amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly focusing on military coordination and technological exchange.
This deepening alliance has significant implications for global security dynamics, as both nations increasingly coordinate their military activities and share advanced technologies. Their joint exercises have expanded to include operations in sensitive locations, such as the East China Sea and areas near Alaska, demonstrating their capability to project power globally and challenge Western military dominance.
U.S. and Allied Response Strategies
In response to evolving global threats, the United States has implemented a comprehensive strategy focusing on military modernization, alliance strengthening, and strategic countermeasures. The Department of Defense has allocated USD 234.90 billion for programs supporting integrated deterrence, representing a significant 10% increase over previous spending plans.
Military Modernization Efforts
The Pentagon’s modernization strategy emphasizes a “dynamic force employment” approach, enabling rapid deployment of military assets worldwide without predictable rotation schedules. This innovative strategy has demonstrated its effectiveness through the deployment of up to 10,000 troops to Poland, maintaining strategic ambiguity while reassuring NATO allies.
Key modernization initiatives include:
- Development and acquisition of F-35 fighter jets
- Construction of Columbia-class nuclear submarines
- Implementation of the Replicator Initiative for AI-directed autonomous systems
- Enhancement of space-based defense capabilities
The Space Force, established in 2019, works in close coordination with Cyber Command to protect critical infrastructure and satellite communications. This collaboration has become increasingly vital as intelligence indicates China’s intentions to conduct destructive cyberattacks against U.S. domestic infrastructure.
Strengthening Partnerships in Key Regions
The United States has significantly enhanced its alliance network through the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR), launched in June to strengthen defense industrial cooperation. This initiative involves thirteen countries signing a statement of principles for Indo-Pacific Defense Industrial Base Collaboration.
| Region | Key Partnership Initiatives |
|---|---|
| Europe | NATO expansion, USD 3B defense funding |
| Indo-Pacific | PIPIR, joint military exercises |
| Middle East | Enhanced security cooperation |
| Western Hemisphere | Counter-malign influence operations |
In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. has strengthened alliances with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines through increased military exercises and assistance. The annual Marine Aviation Support exercise specifically targets Chinese military and political influence. The U.S. commitment to allies extends to providing up to five nuclear-powered submarines to the Australian navy by 2030.
Diplomatic and Economic Countermeasures
The United States has implemented a multi-faceted approach to counter Chinese and Russian influence, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. This strategy includes active competition with both nations to prevent regional partners from prioritizing engagement with these autocratic rivals.
The administration has focused on three primary countermeasures:
- Strengthening democratic institutions and values
- Developing mutually beneficial economic partnerships
- Enhancing regional security cooperation
Recent initiatives demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach, with the U.S. successfully coordinating with partners to protect vital chokepoints like the Panama Canal from potential Chinese control. The strategy emphasizes leveraging America’s asymmetric advantage – its network of allies and partners – which neither China nor Russia can match.
The Department of Defense has also initiated the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, working alongside the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies addressing critical security challenges. This collaborative effort has resulted in comprehensive recommendations for countering malign influence while promoting hemispheric prosperity.
Conclusion
The combined military advancement of China and Russia marks a pivotal shift in global security dynamics. China’s aggressive expansion toward 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, coupled with Russia’s substantial increase in defense spending to 6.3% of GDP, signals an unprecedented challenge to international stability. Their strengthened military partnership, demonstrated through extensive joint exercises and technology sharing, amplifies these security concerns while reshaping traditional power dynamics across critical regions.
U.S. strategic responses through military modernization programs and enhanced international partnerships demonstrate a measured approach to these emerging threats. The Pentagon’s dynamic force employment strategy, alongside initiatives like PIPIR and expanded allied cooperation, creates a robust framework for maintaining global security. These coordinated efforts, supported by technological advancement and diplomatic measures, position the United States and its allies to address the complex security challenges posed by China and Russia’s military expansion while preserving strategic stability worldwide.